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☆ Stock-hungry volatility funds, ‘gamma-heavy' options dealers could buoy US equities
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Options strategists believe market gyrations may stay subdued for some time - potentially smoothing the way for further gains in equities. The S&P 500 is up 19% year-to-date, following a 9% gain in November - its best monthly performance since July 2022. Since the VIX tends to move inversely to stocks, market participants watch it closely as an indicator of investor sentiment and positioning. Among the factors closely watched by market participants are the funds that take their signals from market volatility, selling when volatility picks up and buying when it subsides. History also shows that once volatility expectations become subdued, they can linger at low levels for a while.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Ilya Feygin, Nomura, Charlie McElligott, Brent Kochuba, Cantor Fitzgerald, Eric Johnston, Cantor Fitzgerald’s, Johnston, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Grant McCool Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Monday, WallachBeth, Nomura Securities, ’, Thomson

Rates futures markets are showing cuts being priced as early as May 2024, according to LSEG data. The prospects for rate cuts received a boost on Tuesday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, deemed a hawk, hinted at lower interest rates in the months ahead if inflation continued to ease. Deutsche Bank economists on Monday projected 175 basis points in Fed rate cuts in 2024, but said that those cuts would come with a mild recession in the first half of next year. “Absent rapid Fed easing, we expect a more challenging macro backdrop for stocks next year,” they wrote in a Wednesday report. Others said investors may be overestimating how quickly the Fed might react to signs of slowing inflation.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Jack Ablin, ” Ablin, Christopher Waller, ”, Jake Schurmeier, Schurmeier, Thomas Barkin, Charlie McElligott, Michael Green, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Cresset, Gross, Harbor, Reuters, Richmond Fed, Nomura Securities, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, stoke, Carolina, New York

☆ U.S. stock prices near level for 'mechanical selling' - Nomura's McElligott
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Options floor brokers work on the floor of the NYSE American, formerly known as the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), at New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 11, 2023. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 (.SPX) dropped to 4,401.38, near a a four-week low, putting the index on the verge of setting off a deluge of "mechanical selling", or stock selling by options dealers and certain trend-following investors, including commodity trading advisors (CTAs), Nomura’s McElligott said. The selloff also pushed the Cboe Volatility Index (.VIX) - an options-based gauge of expected stock market gyrations - to its highest in nearly four weeks. A drop below the 4,409 level for the S&P 500 triggers selling by CTAs with an estimated $12.3 billion of stock futures up for sale in aggregate, McElligott estimates. If investors react to the latest drop in the market by selling volatility or by taking profits on existing hedges it could help stifle the selling pressure on the market, he said.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Nomura, Charlie McElligott, Nomura’s McElligott, McElligott, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: NYSE, American Stock Exchange, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Thomson, & $ Locations: New York City, U.S, Charlie McElligott .

☆ ‘Higher for longer’ rates remain a threat to U.S. stocks after inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. In the 12-months through August, the CPI jumped 3.7%, though year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Markets now anticipate that the Fed will cut rates for the first time in July 2024, compared with expectations a month ago that rates would begin falling by March. “Earnings are what matter from here, particularly with an AI sector that needs to justify expectations." Reporting by David Randall; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Alex McGrath, Kevin Gordon, Charlie McElligott, ”, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Sharon Singleton Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Futures, Treasury, U.S ., Schwab Center, Financial Research JPMorgan, Nomura, Nvidia, Companies, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Fed meeting comes during historically tough week for US stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 11, 2023. The so-called "September Effect," the apparent trend where U.S. stock market returns are relatively soft in September, has been especially acute for stocks in the week after options expiration, according to Nomura. In 26 of the last 33 years, the S&P 500 Index (.SPX) fell in the week following the September options expiration, with a median drop of 1%, the analysis showed. This time around, the week will encompass the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, set to conclude on Sep. 20. The S&P 500 is down 0.9% month-to-date, and investors are bracing for a host of market-moving catalysts in coming days, including Wednesday's report on U.S. consumer prices.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Nomura, Reuters Graphics Nomura, Charlie McElligott, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nomura Securities, Reuters Graphics, Mutual, Tallbacken Capital Advisors, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Analysis: Options investors guard against U.S. stock tumble, despite buoyant markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 30, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidNEW YORK, May 10 (Reuters) - Options market demand for insurance against a stock market crash has soared to multi-month highs, even as equities have calmed down after a choppy start to the year. U.S. stock market volatility has subsided as the S&P 500 (.SPX) has logged a 7% year-to-date gain. Though stock market gyrations have subsided in recent weeks from levels hit during the regional banks crisis, investors see plenty of catalysts for volatility ahead. Institutional investors' stock exposure has inched higher after slumping in 2022 to a decade low, excluding the COVID-19 market crash of March 2020, Deutsche Bank data showed.

☆ Options investors guard against US stock tumble, despite buoyant markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

☆ Wall St Week Ahead US. consumer price data to test feared stagflation scenario
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Some also believe the recent banking sector tumult will hurt lending and further constrain growth, forcing the Fed to cut rates before inflation is tamed. April’s survey of global fund managers from BoFA Global Research showed stagflation expectations near historical highs, with 86% saying it will be part of the macroeconomic backdrop in 2024. Next week’s consumer price data for April, due on Wednesday, May 10, could offer a clearer picture of whether the Fed’s interest rate increases are cooling inflation. Charlie McElligott, managing director of cross-asset macro strategy at Nomura Securities, pointed to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate, which is projecting a 2.7% growth rate in the second quarter, up from 1.8% on May 1. At the same time, expectations that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates much higher has created a better backdrop for investors, he said.

NEW YORK, March 17 (Reuters) - Whipsawed U.S. stocks have gained an unexpected ally in recent days - a historic plunge in bond yields. The volatility in fixed income markets has unsettled investors, and falling yields can reflect expectations that the Fed will cut rates because of a hit to growth. The index finished up 1.4% for the week, with strength in technology stocks outweighing sharp declines in bank shares. Tech stocks vs US bond yieldsThe near-term trajectory of yields will likely hinge on next week's Federal Reserve meeting. The S&P 500 trades at 17.5 times forward earnings estimates compared to its historic average P/E of 15.6 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream.

☆ Short-dated options trade behind Thursday's U.S. stock market choppiness -Nomura's McElligott
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Some 26,000 Feb 23 put options on S&P 500 e-minis futures with a strike price corresponding to the 4,000 level were bought early in Thursday’s session, McElligott said in a note. In addition, as the market declines the options dealers have to sell increasing amounts of stock futures to remain hedged. Those trades generated some $2 billion in selling pressure and likely contributed to the index’s intraday reversal, McElligot said. Selling pressure could rise to as much as $5 billion if market declines accelerate, he added. Trading in short-dated options contracts, or 0DTE- zero days to expiry contracts - have garnered attention on Wall Street in recent months, drawing record volumes and boosting worries about their role in aggravating intraday stock price swings.

☆ Analysis: Wall Street heavyweights warn against ‘Goldilocks’ hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The odds are “too high on Goldilocks; there’s still no easy way out,” analysts at BoFA Global Research wrote on Tuesday. Stocks tend to perform poorly in economic downturns, with the S&P 500 falling an average of 29% during recessions since World War Two, according to Truist Advisory Services. Those rebounds inevitably crumbled, leaving the S&P 500 with a 19.4% annual loss, its worst since 2008. The most recent rally has lifted the S&P 500 more than 11% from its October lows. Strategists polled by Reuters at the end of 2021 saw the S&P 500 gaining a median of 7.5% last year.

They projected their key policy rate would top out at between 5.00% and 5.25% this year, up from a current 4.25%-4.50% rate. Market pricing indicates investors remain wedded to a more dovish view, with the policy rate peaking below 5% around mid-June before falling in the second half of the year. Rieder believes policymakers will raise rates by 25 basis points at the next two meetings, with further 25 basis point increases possible, depending on data. Investors in short-term options had priced in a much sharper move of about 2% going into Thursday's CPI print, according to data from market maker Optiver. Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO's North American economist, believes the Fed is likely to raise rates just two more times this year before pausing.

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